Thursday, September 14, 2006

PSU Thoughts & A Look at how the Maize will be Blue Wolverines
By Randy W. Hall

After watching the game live in person (never as good for reviewing purposes as TV for football), and watching the brilliant NBC condensed version on their website (they show every play and cut out all the commercials and breaks in between plays. Genius.), I’m willing to say Notre Dame looked in midseason form on Saturday.

The stadium was alive and the weather for most of the day was beautiful. I got to sit in Penn St. country (a PSU alumnus got the tickets and took me to the game. Thanks so much Rob) and it was awesome. Early in the game it looked like it might be a bit of a slugfest. The Nittany Lions held ND to field goals early for a tenuous 6-0 lead early in the second quarter. However you could see by the way the Irish were controlling the ball they were probing the PSU defense for weaknesses and tiring it out methodically. Meanwhile their defense was resting and plotting for the next series on the sideline. A bad double-whammy omen for the PSU faithful. This was compounded even further by the mistakes that Penn St made. Some were of their own doing (like that unbelievable fumble on the failed option play on PSU’s first series of the second half when they needed points that Zbikowski took to the house for seven points). Others were the result of bad calls (that was not clipping on Tony Hunt’s thirty-yard screen pass that got called back). However, you simply cannot afford turnovers on the road without forcing any (the Nittany Lions had three turnovers). Notre Dame on the other hand didn’t have any turnovers for the third straight game (going back to the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State). Now that I’ve jinxed them, here’s hoping they are able to not have any costly ones vs. the Wolverines.

Old ass Bo Schembechler (what did this guy ever do besides lose tons of Rose Bowls and lose to just about every Top 10 team he ever played?) already is campaigning to get ND off future schedules and his old minion Lloyd Carr is already in full denial of Notre Dame for this weekend’s contest. One thing I’ve noticed this week and heading into the season however is the emphasis by U of M on this game going in. Some Michigan media members are even saying the season is a lost cause if they leave South Bend losers. Usually Michigan downplays the importance of the game vs. Notre Dame but this year they’ve made it a priority to beat us. I think it will be evident early on that Michigan wants to humble us and recover some of their skunkbear pride after dropping 3 of 4 vs. ND (the lone win being a 38-0 drubbing in Ann Arbor in 2003). I fully expect them to come out aggressively on both sides of the ball and try and catch the Irish off-guard. However I think as the game wears on, Notre Dame will slowly take over (a la Georgia Tech) and overtake the Wolverines the longer the game goes on. While Michigan spent much of the off-season getting slimmer, I believe the Irish are in better shape physically and this will take its toll in the fourth quarter. I also think a big special teams play will tilt the game in our favor (maybe a Zbikowski return or a Breaston fumble on a return).

I also think our soft run defense (to this point) will step it up and limit Michigan when it counts. Mike Hart, Kevin Grady, et al will have some good runs, but ND will slow them down enough to make them settle for some field goals instead of touchdowns (sort of like in 2004) and will score some TD’s to pull ahead. Brady Quinn will definitely improve on his 140 yards passing from last season’s contest (however Weis was playing conservatively and the game could’ve been more high-scoring had it needed to be). Possibly before the first half is over he will have eclipsed that mark. Whomever Michigan CB Leon Hall covers will have a tough day (I expect it to be Jeff Samardzija), however the other receiver (probably Rhema McKnight) will be able to take advantage of the other CB Charles Stewart who will be indoctrinated rudely.

I also expect Weis to have something special up his sleeve (like when he came out in 5 wide last year) for this game. I fully expect Michigan to air it out a bit more themselves and test the Irish secondary. So far in this young season they haven’t attempted a pass over 20 yards. I expect this to change and see Breaston run some deep routes, a la Ted Ginn Jr. in the Fiesta Bowl. Breaston is a tantalizing, yet unreliable, talent, who will be respected by the Irish secondary.

Defensively the front seven of the Wolverines are quality athletes. With new coordinator Ron English anxious to make his mark I expect some blitzing up the middle with his linebackers and a strong pass-rush from DE Lamar Woodley.

From Notre Dame’s perspective I expect them to try and work the clock as much as possible, provided they’re not behind by more than 7. I think Weis wants to control the tempo of the game and keep his defense as fresh as possible and wear out the Wolverines D like they did in the Penn St. game. I think this contest will be low scoring in the first half, but both defenses will be loosened up and dissected in the second half. Notre Dame will win this one late:

Notre Dame: 31
Michigan: 23

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